Are There Bubbles in the Watch Market?

Source:  Images and content by A Collected Man @ ACollectedMan.com.  See the original article here - https://www.acollectedman.com/blogs/journal/watch-market-bubble

“A bubble is created by irrational expectations of a market fuelled by speculation and greed,” states industry veteran, Olivier Müller. This is by any measure, a sensitive topic. Whenever we talk about the rise and fall of values, we are ultimately dealing with a matter that can generate strong feelings, as value is so often subjective. Those who are invested in certain corners of the market, whether for passion, profit or both, are always going to have something to say when it comes to the perception of mysterious bubbles forming, and if, or when, they might burst.

However, taking a pragmatic view of these things can be particularly useful. Studying the various times that collectors have labelled certain fluctuations as bubbles, helps us to understand when they were right, or when they may have been a little hasty in their doomsday calls. As we will discover, it can be almost impossible to correctly spot a bubble every time, although there are certain signs of which to be wary.

After breaking down what a bubble really is, we’ll look more closely at a few examples which can help inform our understanding of watch markets. Specifically, we will examine trends around vintage Heuer, Panerai and Rolex Bubbleback pieces, to see what parallels can be drawn and insights gained. By no means are we insinuating that all three of these were bubbles, but we intend to gain a better understanding of how they evolved and what caused them to behave the way they did.